By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone

 September 25, 2025 –

“The peso’s tone today was set more by Washington than Mexico City. After Chair Powell stuck to a cautious script on further Fed easing, the dollar found a bid across FX, and high-carry EM pairs—including MXN—leaned with that tide. The message wasn’t “higher for longer,” but it was firm enough to keep U.S. rate-cut odds from running ahead of the data, and that steadied the greenback into mid-week.

Locally, the only print that mattered today was the bi-weekly CPI: headline inflation re-accelerated in the first half of September to 3.74% y/y, with core momentum a touch firmer on the month. It’s not a regime change, but it nudges inflation toward the top half of Banxico’s tolerance band and reminds markets that disinflation is not a straight line. Importantly, the mix—headline near expectations, core a little sticky—keeps Thursday’s policy call in play but argues for a measured tone on forward guidance.

That sets up tomorrow’s (Thursday, Sept 25) Banxico meeting as a communication event as much as a rate event. Consensus still looks for a 25 bp cut to 7.50%, extending a gradual easing cycle started last year, but today’s CPI makes an outright dovish pivot less likely; expect language that preserves optionality and keeps the door open to a pause if core proves stubborn. Markets have been leaning that way for days, and the latest polling reflects it.

Overall near-term direction hinges on two levers—(1) the Fed path being “slow and data-dependent,” which keeps the dollar supported on soft risk days, and (2) Banxico’s tone tomorrow. A vanilla 25 bp cut with cautious guidance likely leaves MXN trading the global dollar impulse and local carry; anything that hints at a faster domestic cutting pace would weaken that carry anchor and make the peso more reactive to U.S. data and risk appetite.

If Banxico sticks to gradualism and core inflation doesn’t broaden, the peso’s medium-term resilience can persist, but the path will be choppier than the summer, with global dollar firmness and Mexico-U.S. data spreads doing most of the day-to-day steering.”