By Antonio Di Giacomo, Financial Markets Analyst for LATAM at XS.com

September 24, 2025 –

“Crude oil prices recorded a rebound this week, reaching levels not seen in three weeks. Brent rose more than 3.5%, settling around $68.24 per barrel, while WTI gained over 4%, reaching the $64.85 per barrel area. This increase reflects a combination of supply factors and geopolitical tensions that are driving the energy market.

Supply problems in Iraq, Venezuela, and Russia continue to be structural factors driving prices higher. In Iraq, the paralysis of Kurdish exports has limited supply, despite preliminary agreements announced to resume them. In Venezuela, production constraints continue to pose an obstacle, while in Russia, recent attacks on its energy infrastructure and the possibility of new sanctions have intensified uncertainty.

In Russia’s case, tensions are particularly critical. Ukrainian attacks on strategic facilities have temporarily reduced export capacity, and the risk of further international sanctions threatens to complicate the outlook further. These circumstances, together with stagnation in the flow of refined products, have generated additional volatility in prices.

Meanwhile, Venezuela continues to face severe limitations in its crude oil infrastructure. Despite attempts to attract investment and boost exports, results have been modest, keeping the country far from the production levels it once led in the region. This shortfall contributes to maintaining global dependence on other producers such as the United States and Saudi Arabia.

An additional catalyst was added to the mix this week, the unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The news caught markets off guard and reinforced the perception of tighter crude availability in the short term, which further fueled the recent surge in prices.

However, the medium-term outlook presents a different picture. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that global crude oil supply is expected to grow faster than demand in the coming years. If this projection materializes, the market could face a surplus by 2026, which would alleviate the current upward pressure and pave the way for greater competition among producers.

In this context, price behavior will remain conditioned both by the evolution of U.S. inventories and the outcome of geopolitical conflicts in Eurasia and the Middle East. Volatility will remain a dominant feature in the coming months, as market players balance immediate risks with expectations of increased future supply.

In conclusion, the crude oil rebound in September reflects a delicate balance between today’s supply shortages and the prospect of oversupply in the medium term. Prices are being driven by short-term factors, such as geopolitical tensions and falling inventories, but could stabilize if the IEA’s projections materialize. For now, uncertainty keeps investors alert to any signal that could redefine the direction of the global energy market."